Spatiotemporal Dynamic of COVID-19 Diffusion in China: A Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Model Analysis

COVID-19 has seriously threatened people’s health and well-being across the globe since it was first reported in Wuhan, China late 2019. This study investigates mechanism of transmission different periods within between cities to better understand nature outbreak. We use Moran’s I, a measure spatial autocorrelation, examine dependency dynamic autoregressive model explore mechanism. find that decreased over time disease could be divided into three distinct stages: an eruption stage, stabilization declination stage. The infection rate close one-third at while reduced zero also rates stage were similar. China’s policies for controlling spread epidemic, specifically with respect limiting inter-city mobility implementing intra-city travel restrictions (social isolation), most effective reducing viral COVID-19. findings from this indicate elimination had largest impact on transmission.